For real, Tottenham Hotspur finished in the top four five times in these nine seasons, and one of those, in 2011/12, came without a Champions League place. Take Manchester City out and Spurs are in the top four eight times, and all eight carry a Champions League place, some through the play-off round. The one season they miss is 2013/14: fifth, three points behind Everton.
Four seasons change on the Ledger: 2010/11, 2011/12, 2012/13 and 2014/15. Three are the free place and nothing more: Spurs step into the place City leave, and that place is fourth. 2011/12 is the exception, a climb one place beyond it.
The points go the other way. Spurs took 20 points off City in 18 league games, six wins, two draws and ten defeats, and all 20 come off. In the two seasons they beat City home and away, six points go and Spurs still finish where they did for real: fourth in 2009/10, 64 to Aston Villa’s 63, and third in 2015/16.
2014/15 needs no maths. Mauricio Pochettino’s first season, Harry Kane’s 21 league goals, two defeats by City: all 64 points stay, and the place City leave is fourth, a year before Spurs got there for real.