Norwich City had four of the nine seasons in the Premier League: 2011/12, 2012/13, 2013/14 and 2015/16. Against Manchester City they won once, drew twice and lost five times in eight league games. The five points they took all come off.
The results run backwards. The season City beat them twice, Norwich climb three places. The season they beat City, they fall three. In the two seasons they go down, a draw with City comes off and changes nothing: relegated for real, relegated without City.
2012/13
The win that goes
On 29 December City won 4–3 at Norwich. On the final day, 19 May 2013, Norwich won 3–2 away. Take City out and the defeat costs nothing while the win costs three points: 44 becomes 41.
Four clubs finish on 41, and Norwich are the last of them. 11th for real becomes 14th of 19: down three places, the biggest fall in the league, still five points above the drop.
The site’s 2012/13 page has already asked the question: what if Norwich had finished 14th? Their manager, Hughton, was sacked on 6 April 2014 with Norwich 17th and five points above the relegation zone. They went down in 18th.
2013/14
Two short
Beaten 7–0 away in November, Norwich drew 0–0 at home in February. That point goes. 33 becomes 32: 17th of 19, level on points with Fulham, two short of safety. Norwich, Fulham and Cardiff go down in both tables.
Two seasons later it happens again. The 0–0 at home in March 2016 comes off, 34 becomes 33, and Norwich are 18th of 19, six points short.